Market saturation modeling: when growth bends
Linear growth never lasts. Saturation arrives — sometimes gently, sometimes as a cliff. The teams that model it explicitly buy themselves the room to pivot. The teams that don't get caught flat-footed.
Saturation as a coupled system
Saturation is not just \"market size minus current penetration\". It's coupled with channel exhaustion, CAC inflation, competitive response and retention drag. Model the couplings, not the headline number.
The Bass diffusion baseline
Start with a Bass diffusion model. It's old, simple, and surprisingly hard to beat for adoption curves. Use it as your sanity check before layering in agent dynamics.
Detect the inflection early
Strategoscope's SIC engine flags inflection points in saturation curves — typically 6–12 months before they show up in your revenue line. That's the window for adding adjacent products or markets.
Run your first scenario in 60 seconds
Strategoscope turns your assumptions into thousands of trajectories — so you decide with foresight, not gut.